An interesting site, where market incentives produce information on relative chances of the next Nobel Prize in Economics (October 11 this year).
Best chance, according to this approach? Robert Barro. Seems right. K. Grease has in fact claimed that Barro is a lock.
Second most likely? Edward Prescott. Sure, makes sense.
On the other hand, either someone has a sense of humor or else there are huge arbitrage opportunities in this market. Third most likely is Paul Krugman. (click here for accompaniment).
(Nod to JB)
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